Lithium iron phosphate accounts for 60% of the share

Release date：2021/10/18

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According to the news from the micro-network, the battle for power battery routes has never stopped. Ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium titanate are the four routes promoted by domestic business owners. Driven by policies, ternary materials have gradually become the mainstream of the market. However, since 2021, lithium iron phosphate has changed from the previous decline and has grown rapidly. In May and July, it surpassed ternary materials in output and loading volume respectively.

In September, the production and loading of lithium iron phosphate batteries increased significantly again. Combined with the data in recent months, the increase in lithium iron phosphate is increasing, and the gap with ternary materials is also increasing. Chen Lei, an analyst in the lithium battery industry, said that after the policy decline, lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials have returned to the same starting line, and lithium iron phosphate has won the car companies’ advantages with its lower price, higher lifespan, and safer application characteristics. More favors.

Subsidies fade, lithium iron phosphate counterattacks and reverses with three major advantages

The domestic new energy vehicle power battery technology routes mainly include ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium titanate. The current production and sales of lithium manganate and lithium titanate have been minimal; while ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate not only occupy The main market share, the market competition between each other has never stopped. Prior to this, ternary materials have overwhelmed lithium iron phosphate and become the mainstream of the market. However, starting in May of this year, lithium iron phosphate batteries first surpassed ternary materials in production, and then surpassed ternary materials in loading in July.

According to the latest statistics of the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, lithium iron phosphate batteries once again surpassed ternary lithium batteries in September in terms of output and loading, and this gap is still widening. Among them, lithium iron phosphate batteries The loading volume is very close to the output of ternary materials.

Production and loading trends of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials from January to September this year

(Unit: GWh, Source: China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance)

Lithium battery industry analyst Chen Lei (pseudonym) said: “In fact, as early as 2020, lithium iron phosphate batteries have shown a momentum of surpassing ternary lithium batteries.” Chen Lei analyzed that compared with ternary materials, iron phosphate The three advantages of lithium are important reasons for its return to the top of the new energy vehicle power battery list.

The first is safety. The lithium iron phosphate battery has higher high temperature adaptability. During the discharge process, the internal stability is 30°C higher than the external temperature, and the battery will not be damaged; and when it encounters structural damage, lithium iron phosphate The battery is not prone to spontaneous combustion, explosion, etc. In a BYD puncture experiment, it only takes 1.5 seconds for the ternary lithium battery to explode from the penetration of the steel needle; when the same experiment is carried out on the blade battery, there is no open flame, no smoke, and the surface temperature of the battery is only 30°C. -60℃, much lower than the 500℃ surface temperature of ternary lithium battery, the safety is obvious.

The second is a higher service life. Thanks to its long cycle life, lithium iron phosphate can still maintain a battery capacity of 93% after 2000 times of 0.5C rate charging and 1C rate discharge. BYD said that its new generation of lithium iron phosphate batteries can provide 8 years of life guarantee of 1.2 million kilometers.

The third is the cost advantage. Lithium iron phosphate raw materials are easier to obtain, and the cost is lower than that of ternary lithium batteries. With the continuous increase in the production and sales of new energy vehicles, the two scarce raw materials of cobalt and nickel required for ternary lithium batteries continue to be in short supply. Especially this year, the prices of lithium battery raw materials continue to rise, causing ternary lithium battery manufacturers to carry a greater burden. Cost pressure. As of October 15, the price of electrolytic cobalt has soared from 270,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 380,000 yuan/ton; the price of electrolytic nickel has been adjusted again by 1,500 yuan/ton to 140,000 yuan/ton; although the price of lithium iron phosphate is also Rising, but the current price of 74,000 yuan/ton still seems more close to the people.

"The regaining of lithium iron phosphate batteries is subject to market testing. For example, Tesla’s domestic Model Y standard battery life version, after using lithium iron phosphate batteries, the battery life is only 60 kilometers shorter than the longer battery life version and the high-performance version. However, the price has dropped by 70,000-100,000 yuan; the sales of BYD cars that all adopt lithium iron phosphate batteries are also very good, which has driven other car companies to follow up with the adoption of lithium iron phosphate solutions. We believe that lithium iron phosphate has been Favored by OEMs." Chen Lei said.

The reason why lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium return to the same starting line is the sharp decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles. It is understood that the "Energy-saving and New Energy Automobile Industry Development Plan (2012-2020)" released in 2012 proposed that by 2020, the specific energy density of power battery modules should reach 300Wh/kg or more. "This means that the greater the energy density, High, the greater the subsidy, and this indicator requires that only ternary lithium batteries can do it. This is also an important reason why ternary lithium batteries have achieved rapid development before."

However, after 2020, the subsidy will gradually return to zero, and the main factor driving the development of ternary lithium batteries has disappeared, replaced by a market mechanism. Facts show that the market has chosen lithium iron phosphate. Chen Lei said that the industry’s attention to energy density has fallen sharply. Whether it is lithium iron phosphate or ternary materials, the energy density ceiling is difficult to break through. At present, among the two technical solutions, the energy density of lithium iron phosphate loading is mainly 150Wh. /kg, the energy density of ternary lithium battery loading is 160Wh/kg. The difference between the two is not big. Under the demand of lower cost, safer and longer life, lithium iron phosphate is the market's choice.

January-September trends in battery loading with different energy densities (Source: China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance)

According to the statistics of the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, from January to September this year, the proportion of battery loading of the two types of energy densities <125Wh/kg and ≥16OWh/kg showed an overall downward trend, especially in the second half of the year, the downward trend accelerated ; And the proportion of battery loading in the two energy density ranges of 125-140Wh/kg and 140-160Wh/kg is increasing. Among them, by September, the proportion of battery loading in the energy density range of 140-160Wh/kg rose to the first place in the market.

International giants enter the market, and the domestic market share of lithium iron phosphate has exceeded 60%

When the lithium iron phosphate technology program returned to the first place in China, the international power battery manufacturer also announced the layout of the lithium iron phosphate technology route.

In fact, the characteristics of lithium iron phosphate electrode materials were first discovered and studied by Japanese and American scientists in the 1990s. Because of their wider sources of raw materials, lower prices and no environmental pollution, they have been developed in the United States and Japan. National promotion and use.

However, because of its low energy density, foreign new energy vehicle manufacturers are more inclined to adopt ternary materials, especially the early cooperation between Tesla and Panasonic, which has pushed up the position of ternary materials in the field of electric vehicles.

In July 2012, the lithium iron phosphate giant American A123 Systems, which had a cumulative loss of about 700 million US dollars, filed for bankruptcy. This incident marked the decline of the international lithium iron phosphate technology route. Chen Lei said that, except for mainland China, power batteries in overseas markets are basically ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate has not been industrialized for a long time.

With the continuous shortage of upstream materials, the manufacturing and use costs of ternary materials continue to rise. In order to meet the ever-increasing electric vehicle market, overseas power battery giants have also begun to deploy lithium iron phosphate solutions.

Especially after the auto-ignition incidents of world-renowned brands such as Hyundai, Volkswagen, Porsche, and GM, the power battery supplier LG Chem was pushed to the forefront, which accelerated the process of returning to the lithium iron phosphate solution in overseas markets. Among them, in the case of Hyundai Motor’s spontaneous combustion recall, LG Chem had to bear 70% of the 1.4 trillion won (approximately 5.6 billion yuan) loss; in the GM recall, LG Chem once again lost $1.9 billion (approximately). 12.25 billion yuan).

It is understood that LG Chem has spun off the ternary lithium battery spontaneous combustion incident at the end of 2020 and established LG Energy Solutions, focusing on the research and development of lithium iron phosphate battery technology. According to the latest reports from overseas media, LG New Energy Solutions is expected to Build a trial production line for lithium iron phosphate batteries in 2022.

Recently, another South Korean power battery giant also announced its entry into the field of lithium iron phosphate. The CEO of SKI said on October 5: “We are considering the development of LFP (lithium iron phosphate) batteries. Although its capacity density is low, its cost and heat There is an advantage in terms of stability."

Chen Lei said: "The flammable risk of ternary lithium batteries is accelerating the global power battery market to enter the lithium iron phosphate market. Up to now, among the top five power battery companies in the world, CATL, LG New Energy, BYD, and SKI are all Having entered this field, only Panasonic has not yet released a lithium iron phosphate technology route. However, it still takes a long process from the layout to mass production of lithium iron phosphate, which requires at least one year of preparation."

The OEMs have also started to import lithium iron phosphate batteries in advance. Hyundai Motor said on October 8 that it has begun to develop electric vehicles equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries in the first half of this year, which will be launched outside of China. On October 14, electric vehicle company Electric Last Mile Solutions, Inc. also announced that it has reached an agreement with CATL to supply lithium iron phosphate batteries for it.

Li Bin, the founder of Weilai Automobile, one of the leading companies in the new local car-making forces, was not optimistic about lithium iron phosphate before. Mix and match and name it "Ternary Lithium Iron Battery Pack".

It should be noted that among the 10 best-selling BEV models in the domestic market from January to August, Wuling Hongguang mini, Tesla Model 3, Tesla Model Y, BYD Han, Euler R1, E'an S, Seven cars including Benben, Chery eQ1, Xiaopeng P7 and Roewe Clever have been equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries.

Obviously, the lithium iron phosphate battery is returning to the car quickly, and the momentum is rapid. Some people have begun to worry about the future prospects of ternary materials; however, in Chen Lei's view, lithium iron phosphate will not replace ternary materials, but the two coexist.

At present, domestic power battery companies basically take both lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium into consideration. Even BYD, which is equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries for all models, has developed ternary lithium batteries and supplied them to Ford. Taking the two technical routes into consideration is also regarded as one of the measures for enterprises to cope with the changes in the power battery market in the future.

In terms of lithium iron phosphate, "BYD has the most influence, but its output is the highest in the Ningde era, and Guoxuan Hi-Tech is also the top three players." The prospectus of Hunan Yuneng, the largest domestic shipment of lithium iron phosphate battery cathode materials, revealed that the revenue from CATL accounted for 58.07% of its total revenue in the first quarter of this year, followed by BYD with 38.92%.